
Imagine how big the potholes get on a busy road leading to a supermarket if nobody owns the road and the council refuses to take it over. CC-licensed photo by Arlington Department of Environmental Services on Flickr.
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A selection of 9 links for you. Driven mad. I’m @charlesarthur on Twitter. On Threads: charles_arthur. On Mastodon: https://newsie.social/@charlesarthur. On Bluesky: @charlesarthur.bsky.social. Observations and links welcome.
Climate change is accelerating. But why? • Washington Post
John Muyskens and Shannon Osaka:
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For decades, a portion of the warming unleashed by greenhouse gas emissions was “masked” by sulphate aerosols. These tiny particles cause heart and lung disease when people inhale polluted air, but they also deflect the sun’s rays. Over the entire planet, those aerosols can create a significant cooling effect — scientists estimate that they have cancelled out about 0.5ºC of warming so far.
But beginning about two decades ago, countries began cracking down on aerosol pollution, particularly sulphate aerosols. Countries also began shifting from coal and oil to wind and solar power. As a result, global sulphur dioxide emissions have fallen about 40% since the mid-2000s; China’s emissions have fallen even more. That effect has been compounded in recent years by a new international regulation that slashed sulphur emissions from ships by about 85%.
That explains part of why warming has kicked up a bit. But some researchers say that the last few years of record heat can’t be explained by aerosols and natural variability alone. In a paper published in the journal Science in late 2024, researchers argued that about 0.2ºC of 2023’s record heat — or about 13% — couldn’t be explained by aerosols and other factors. Instead, they found that the planet’s low-lying cloud cover had decreased — and because low-lying clouds tend to reflect the sun’s rays, that decrease warmed the planet.
Clouds have long been one of the greatest uncertainties in climate science. Clouds are probably helping to cool the Earth, like aerosols, but how much is an open question. “Pretty much every climate model agrees that it’s a cooling effect, but the size of that cooling effect is quite uncertain,” said Chris Smith, a research fellow at the University of Leeds and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
That shift in cloud cover could also be partly related to aerosols, since clouds tend to form around particles in the atmosphere. But some researchers also say it could be a feedback loop from warming temperatures. If temperatures warm, it can be harder for low-lying clouds to form.
If most of the current record warmth is due to changing amounts of aerosol pollution, the acceleration would stop once aerosol pollutants reach zero — and the planet would return to its previous, slower rate of warming.
But if it’s due to a cloud feedback loop, the acceleration is likely to continue — and bring with it worsening heat waves, storms and droughts.
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We may find out in four or five years if it’s rapid doom, or slower doom.
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Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions have now been “flat or falling” for 21 months • Carbon Brief
Lauri Myllyvirta:
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China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 1% in the final quarter of 2025, likely securing a decline of 0.3% for the full year as a whole.
This extends a “flat or falling” trend in China’s CO2 emissions that began in March 2024 and has now lasted for nearly two years.
The new analysis for Carbon Brief shows that, in 2025, emissions from fossil fuels increased by an estimated 0.1%, but this was more than offset by a 7% decline in CO2 from cement.
Other key findings include:
• CO2 emissions fell year-on-year in almost all major sectors in 2025, including transport (3%), power (1.5%) and building materials (7%)
• The key exception was the chemicals industry, where emissions grew 12%
• Solar power output increased by 43% year-on-year, wind by 14% and nuclear 8%, helping push down coal generation by 1.9%
• Energy storage capacity grew by a record 75 gigawatts (GW), well ahead of the rise in peak demand of 55GW
• This means that growth in energy storage capacity and clean-power output topped the increases in peak and total electricity demand, respectively.The CO2 numbers imply that China’s carbon intensity – its fossil-fuel emissions per unit of GDP – fell by 4.7% in 2025 and by 12% during 2020-25. This is well short of the 18% target set for that period by the 14th five-year plan.
Moreover, China would now need to cut its carbon intensity by around 23% over the next five years in order to meet one of its key climate commitments under the Paris Agreement.
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Baby steps. What the drop is for this year will be a very important pointer for the future of, well, perhaps everything.
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UKGovScan: UK Government Spending Transparency
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UK Government Transparency
Search government contracts, political donations, MP financial interests, lobbying activity, and company data, all in one place.
This is an independent transparency project, not an official government website. Data is sourced from public registers and may contain errors — always verify against official statistics.
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A potentially very useful one, this. One for the bookmarks. Made by “Bran”. It picks out some random ones every time you refresh the front page, such as:
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Your taxes at work: Alliance Homes spent £1M on “Edge Protection to Prevent Pigeon Access” to solar panels. The pigeons were not consulted. See contract →
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One has to hope that this will shore up our trust in government accountability and responsibility rather than undermining it.
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Potholesville • The Value of Nothing
Martin Robbins:
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Last year I wrote about Old Bridge Way, the pothole-riddled road at the centre of a bizarre ownership dispute, or rather lack-of-ownership dispute as various companies, the council and even the actual King of England battle to avoid responsibility for fixing it. Since then the road has continued to deteriorate, reaching the point where access to Shefford’s main supermarket was almost severed. Residents are up in arms, and are resorting to increasingly radical measures to bring attention to the issue.
When I set out the film the story I didn’t expect that I, too, would become radicalised; that Nick Offerman, in the form of the legendary Ron Swanson, would be responsible for me carrying out an act of civic extremism one cold Sunday morning. Watch the short film, and please like and subscribe to my YouTube channel.
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I rarely link to YouTube videos here, but this is, as is typical with Robbins, quietly entertaining while also being enraging. It’s the story of a road that was originally private, and a cul-de-sac; the local council then turned it into a through route for HGVs without getting the agreement of the private owners. The HGVs chew up the roads, which the private owners then have the responsibility of fixing. So they ducked out.
It’s dispiriting that he is able to find these stories of bureaucratic desuetude. Two things I’m constantly awed by in his videos: the drone work (how does he get the permissions?) and the music choice.
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Google: Gemini hit with 100,000+ prompts in cloning attempt • NBC News
Kevin COllier:
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Google says its flagship artificial intelligence chatbot, Gemini, has been inundated by “commercially motivated” actors who are trying to clone it by repeatedly prompting it, sometimes with thousands of different queries — including one campaign that prompted Gemini more than 100,000 times.
In a report published Thursday, Google said it has increasingly come under “distillation attacks,” or repeated questions designed to get a chatbot to reveal its inner workings. Google described the activity as “model extraction,” in which would-be copycats probe the system for the patterns and logic that make it work. The attackers appear to want to use the information to build or bolster their own AI, it said.
The company believes the culprits are mostly private companies or researchers looking to gain a competitive advantage. A spokesperson told NBC News that Google believes the attacks have come from around the world but declined to share additional details about what was known about the suspects.
The scope of attacks on Gemini indicates that they most likely are or soon will be common against smaller companies’ custom AI tools, as well, said John Hultquist, the chief analyst of Google’s Threat Intelligence Group.
“We’re going to be the canary in the coal mine for far more incidents,” Hultquist said. He declined to name suspects.
The company considers distillation to be intellectual property theft, it said.
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That last line is hilarious, given how Google has slurped up al the content it possibly can from everywhere in order to build repositories and LLMs and, well, everything. The number of lawsuits Google has faced from companies such as Yelp is amazing.
The “distillation attacks” are basically its rivals – or state actors – trying to drain the moat around its LLM.
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FDA declines to review Moderna application for new flu vaccine • The Guardian
Melody Schreiber:
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US regulators will not review Moderna’s request to license a new, potentially more effective flu shot – even though the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) previously gave the green light to the project – in a decision that could have implications for all new and updated vaccines in the US.
It’s the latest move by the Trump administration against vaccines. Officials in January decided to stop fully recommending one-third of routine childhood vaccines, including flu vaccines.
“This is likely to discourage industry from investing in future influenza vaccines, and makes working with the US FDA uncertain and problematic,” said Dorit Reiss, professor of law at UC Law San Francisco. “They are refusing to review a new vaccine with a more flexible technology, while creating a real risk we will not have traditional vaccines for next year.”
Messenger RNA, or mRNA, vaccines have shown the potential to be more effective at protecting against some illnesses, and they may also be updated more quickly than traditional egg-based flu vaccines – an important consideration since flu evolves quickly and may have pandemic potential.
FDA officials will not review the evidence from Moderna’s clinical trials on the new mRNA flu shot because the trials compared Moderna’s shot to existing standard flu shots, rather than shots for high-risk individuals, according to a letter signed by Vinay Prasad, director of the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER).
The FDA does not consider the Moderna trial to be “adequate and well-controlled” because comparing the new shot to standard flu shots “does not reflect the best-available standard of care”, Prasad wrote.
Yet Moderna did compare their vaccine against an existing high-dose flu shot in adults aged 65 and older; in adults under 65, they compared the new shot with standard flu vaccines. “For those under 65, the high dose is not standard of care,” Reiss said. “So their argument is also false.”
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The speed at which the US is going backwards is truly astonishing. Decades of medical advances being thrown out for completely ridiculous motives.
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ByteDance’s new AI video model goes viral as China looks for second DeepSeek moment • Reuters
Eduardo Baptista:
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ByteDance’s new video-generating artificial intelligence model has already impressed the likes of Elon Musk and gone viral in China, where it has been compared to DeepSeek and won praise for its ability to produce cinematic storylines with just a few prompts.
While text-centric AI models such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT and DeepSeek’s R1 have become widely adopted, models specialised in generating videos and pictures represent the next frontier in the technology’s potential for disruption.
ByteDance, which officially unveiled Seedance 2.0 on Thursday, said in a statement that the system was designed for professional film, e-commerce, and advertising productions, because it was capable of processing text, images, audio, and video simultaneously, lowering the cost of creating content.
The product launch comes as China and investors around the world are on the lookout for a successor to Chinese startup DeepSeek’s R1 and V3 models whose global debut early in 2025 triggered a systemic shock.
On Chinese social media, Seedance 2.0 drew comparisons to DeepSeek’s meteoric rise to fame. “Early last year, the release of DeepSeek-R1 sparked heated debate in the U.S. tech community over a ‘Sputnik moment’,” Chinese state-backed newspaper Global Times wrote in an editorial on Wednesday. “This year, the continued breakout success of Seedance 2.0 and similar innovations has gone even further, giving rise to a wave of admiration for China within Silicon Valley.”
…Users on China’s Weibo microblogging platform shared videos generated by the AI model that showcased the complexity and image quality of its output, no matter how bizarre the prompt.
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The most viral video on X has short clips – 15 seconds or so – of Tom Cruise fighting Brad Pitt, Tom Cruise and Brad Pitt fighting a robot, and Tom Cruise (as Ethan Hunt) fighting Keanu Reeves (as John Wick). Notable what the common factor is there: the world’s biggest film star. But 15 seconds of a fight doesn’t add up, even when you do it for longer, to 100 minutes of a film.
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600% memory price surge threatens telcos’ broadband router, set-top box supply • Counterpoint Research
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Driven by surging demand from higher-margin AI server segments, DRAM and NAND memory prices have skyrocketed, jumping more than 600% over the last one year for consumer applications from PCs and low-end smartphones to routers and set-top boxes, according to the February 2026 edition of Counterpoint Research’s Memory Price Tracker . As a result, consumer segments are being hit the hardest by a supply crunch and surging prices for both conventional DRAM and NAND. According to the tracker, this increase in memory prices will continue through June 2026 at least. There is a possibility of prices peaking in the first half of 2026, but supply issues will continue to persist.
While the difficulties being faced by the PC and lower-end smartphone industries with “mobile memory” are now well known, other consumer products like routers, gateways and set-top boxes are affected the most, going by the monthly trends since last year. Over the last nine months, smartphone memory prices jumped 3x, but the prices for “consumer memory”-based broadband products jumped almost 7x. Routers are hit the hardest, especially for OEMs with an unsecured supply and weaker negotiating power. Memory is now contributing more than 20% of the total bill of materials (BOM) in low-to-mid-end routers, up from around 3% exactly a year ago, according to Counterpoint’s Teardown and BOM Analysis Service.
This rings alarm bells for telcos targeting aggressive broadband rollouts (fiber or FWA) for 2026. This “memory winter” is going to prolong and slow down deployments as supply becomes a critical issue, in addition to increasing procurement costs for routers, CPEs and set-top boxes.
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I can’t think of a previous technology rollout that has had such a blast radius on everything else in the adjacent space before. When PCs first came in, they didn’t kill some other space; nor mobile phones, or the internet, or smartphones. But AI? This is sucking all the air out of other technologies.
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YouTube launches native app for Apple Vision Pro – 9to5Mac
Chance Miller:
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When Vision Pro first launched, Google said that a Vision Pro app was on its roadmap, but suggested that people use Safari in the meantime.
In the absence of an official YouTube app for Vision Pro, third-party options quickly popped up on the App Store. Many of those, however, were ultimately removed after Google complained to Apple that the apps violated its YouTube guidelines.
Starting today, Vision Pro users finally have a way to watch YouTube in a native app on visionOS.
The YouTube app for Apple Vision Pro includes access to standard YouTube features like subscriptions, watch history, playlists, and YouTube Shorts. The app also includes support for watching 3D, 360-degree, and VR180 videos. Vision Pro users can watch YouTube video in built-in visionOS environments.
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Just for those who are keeping score, the Vision Pro launched two years ago, in February 2024. Imagine if there had been no YouTube app on the original iPhone. Would people have really tolerated watching YouTube videos on Safari for two years, up to the iPhone 3G? (Possible, I suppose, but very suboptimal.)
Maybe the Vision Pro will just inch forward. Maybe that’s where technology is nowadays: everything just inches forward. Strange, because it used to feel as though it moved in big leaps.
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| • Why do social networks drive us a little mad? • Why does angry content seem to dominate what we see? • How much of a role do algorithms play in affecting what we see and do online? • What can we do about it? • Did Facebook have any inkling of what was coming in Myanmar in 2016? Read Social Warming, my latest book, and find answers – and more. |
Errata, corrigenda and ai no corrida: none notified








